NFL preseason Week 2 betting takeaways — Payments look Tremendous Bowl-ready, Ravens’ historic dominance, Bucs battling accidents
What extra are you able to say about John Harbaugh and the Baltimore Ravens? They’ve now gained 22 straight preseason video games (20-2 ATS). It is really a head-scratching streak, given the notion that groups and followers disregard precise wins that don’t impression the common season standings. However right here we’re, observing a franchise that has constantly churned out “meaningless” victories since 2015, rewarding bettors who’ve maintained religion.
Not solely is the 20-2 ATS mark much more spectacular, however we would have to contemplate together with this run within the dialogue of sports activities domination. Usually, in sports activities parlance, I and lots of others typically reference the 1927 New York Yankees John Picket’s UCLA Bruins, 1985 Chicago Bears and 1985-86 Boston Celtics in numerous conversations. Everyone knows the drill. Simply insert the analogy as an example a degree and hopefully illicit some laughter. Maybe the Ravens are the brand new gold customary. Simply kidding — kind of.
With week two of the NFL preseason virtually over, listed below are my 5 greatest takeaways from a betting perspective:
1. Tampa Bay’s damage woes proceed
Tom Brady could defy Father Time however the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line is actually human. The accidents preserve mounting and that does fear me for any kind of futures. I believe it is time to hearth on below 11.5 wins (below -130) and even below 50.5 factors within the season opener towards the Dallas Cowboys. With this patchwork offensive line, any kind of passing assault will seemingly be relegated to quick throws. The deep threats are simply so difficult, given the whole lot that has transpired. Plus, the 45-year-old quarterback has missed the final two weeks for causes but to be divulged. None of it feels proper so it is time to capitalize. Moreover, Tampa opens with street video games towards the Cowboys and Saints then hosts the Packers and Chiefs. A 1-3 or 0-4 begin isn’t that farfetched.
Moreover, with Tampa’s level unfold for the opener steadily dropping down from three factors, I like to recommend grabbing the Cowboys in a six-point teaser at a guide that has Dallas +1.5. Some books at present have the TB -1, defending the home towards these teasers. I don’t anticipate this line going again up, so it is sensible to seize what worth you’ll be able to in a quantity that many deem insignificant.
As for the AFC’s elite groups, it positive appears to be like like Allen and Mahomes haven’t developed any rust. Allen made his preseason debut and was flawless on an opening-drive landing. Even when he took a seat, the offense continued to look polished and explosive, scoring a TD on its first six drives. The Buffalo Bills appear like a worthy Tremendous Bowl favourite (+600), and I couldn’t fault anybody for laying 2.5 factors with them on the street on the defending champs. After final yr’s playoff collapse in Kansas Metropolis, they’re motivated and targeted.
Elsewhere, the demise of the Kansas City Chiefs offense could also be a bit untimely. Sure, Mahomes misplaced Tyreek Hill however the quarterback continues to be a human cheat code. He continues to improvise within the pocket and miraculously and successfully unfold the ball to all his choices, making performs that solely he could make. It is really outstanding and it’s fairly laughable monitoring the in-game betting market. For instance, with KC main 14-0 early within the second quarter on Saturday, the Chiefs have been 17-point favorites within the first half over Washington although the Commanders have been about to obtain a kickoff. Usually that dwell line would both be 13.5 or 14.5. Mahomes simply skews all of the numbers. I would be very cautious fading this staff and wagering on under 10.5 wins.
3. Shedding luck in Las Vegas
I’m bullish on the Las Vegas Raiders offense this season, even grabbing 20-1 odds that they are going to rating essentially the most factors. Nevertheless, after permitting 4 extra sacks on Saturday and now 13 in three video games, it is onerous to check Derek Carr having a clear sufficient pocket to actually shine. Saturday solely received worse when UFC president Dana White shared the backstory of Brady’s recruitment and the way shut Carr got here to dropping his job. New head coach Josh McDaniels now has some work to do, preserving Carr each emotionally and bodily. This may very well be a enjoyable staff and I perceive the optimism nevertheless it nonetheless appears like a last-place AFC West end.
4. Malik Willis continues to shine
Malik Willis turned in one other notable efficiency this weekend, which reinforces what I wrote final week. I extremely suggest enjoying below 3,525.5 passing yards for Ryan Tannehill (3,600.5 at DraftKings). Even when Willis doesn’t exchange him because the starter sooner or later, the dual-threat QB figures to get a sequence or two every recreation to offer opposing defenses one other look and inject some life into Tennessee’s offense. I’ve comparable ideas if you could find a Mitch Trubisky passing yards prop, given Kenny Pickett‘s sturdy efficiency this preseason.
5. Dwell betting? Proceed with warning
I routinely implore you to train excessive self-discipline and warning with in-game betting — and that’s emphasised through the NFL preseason. Everyone knows to count on the sudden within the preseason however the Cowboys took issues to a different stage Saturday night time. With a 19-point lead late within the third quarter, Mike McCarthy went for it on fourth-and-short on his personal 35-yard line. There is no such thing as a means he would even think about that through the common season. QB Will Grier was flushed from the pocket and in the end prolonged the drive. Then, with a 22-point lead about halfway by way of the fourth quarter, Dallas surprisingly tried a 61-yard FG. Brett Maher got here up quick.
We noticed different anomalies all through the weekend. For instance, with a 10-point lead with 1:21 remaining in Tampa Bay’s pink zone, the Tennessee Titans ran a cross play that might have produced a landing. In the course of the common season, this may be thought of poor kind and operating up the rating. Nevertheless, coaches perceive that groups are dealing with roster cuts and wish to judge all positions. Each play is a chance to do exactly that.
And let’s hope preseason apathy is the excuse for Brian Daboll’s questionable selections. The Giants first-time head coach declined a 10-yard holding penalty, permitting Cincinnati to kick and make a 50-yard discipline aim on 4th-and-16 in a scoreless recreation. Usually, a reliable coach would settle for the penalty and drive the opponent to realize sufficient yards on Third-and-26 for a discipline aim try.
Contemplate yourselves warned, dwell bettors.