Which faculty soccer win totals must you guess? SP+ helps present solutions

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The sportsbooks had been awfully robust to beat throughout the 2021 faculty soccer season. The highest pc projections techniques principally completed below 50% towards the unfold, and shutting line worth was subsequent to nonexistent.

We nonetheless had win totals, nonetheless. As I wrote following the common season, my August SP+ win projections beat Caesars Sportsbook 60% of the time and received 74% of the time when it disagreed with the Caesars win whole by no less than one full win.

The final 2022 SP+ projections got here out Sunday, and it seems the books are adapting right here, too. Whereas SP+ disagreed by no less than one full win on 23 groups final yr, there are solely 5 such situations this time round. The books at all times adapt.

There are nonetheless stable bets to be discovered, nonetheless. Under, you will discover full SP+ win projections — common wins (convention and total), odds of bowl eligibility and odds of profitable no less than 11 video games. You will additionally discover 40 potential win whole bets that I really feel fairly good about. (Odds are from Caesars until in any other case famous, and if 40 is just too many for you, I’ve listed the ten I am most assured in on the backside.)

Soar to: SEC | Big Ten | Big 12 | ACC | Pac-12 | Independents | AAC | Mountain West | Sun Belt | C-USA | MAC | Favorite bets


SEC

Odds of ending with 0-1 losses (solely groups with odds at 0.5% or larger are listed): Georgia 57%, Alabama 53%, Ole Miss 4%, Kentucky 4%, Texas A&M 4%, Tennessee 2%, Arkansas 1%, Florida 0.9%, Mississippi State 0.5%

Odds of no less than 6 wins: Alabama 100%, Georgia 100%, Ole Miss 98%, Kentucky 97%, Tennessee 96%, Texas A&M 96%, Florida 86%, Arkansas 84%, Mississippi State 81%, Auburn 77%, LSU 75%, South Carolina 66%, Missouri 61%, Vanderbilt 0.4%

BEST BETS

Texas A&M below 8.5 (+140). Based on SP+, there is a 62% probability that the Aggies end with eight or fewer wins. In the meantime, with +140 odds, which means the break-even proportion is at 42%. That 20-point cushion is among the largest you will discover.

Alabama below 11 (+110). There is a 35% probability of a push on this one, so there’s not an overt quantity of potential right here. However the Crimson Tide have solely an 18% probability of ending 12-0, so there’s not a ton of threat both.

Georgia below 11 (+100). We’re speaking about principally the identical odds as Bama — solely a 43% probability of going below, however solely a 21% probability of going over.

Missouri over 5 (-150). The -150 odds imply a 60% break-even proportion, and the Tigers solely have a 61% probability of hitting the over. However as soon as once more, the chance is minimal — there’s solely a 14% probability they end below 5.

Ole Miss over 7.5 (-150). Once more, you have obtained an enormous break-even proportion to clear right here, however SP+ provides the Rebels a 70% probability of going 8-4 or higher. Respectable cushion.


Huge Ten

Odds of ending with 0-1 losses: Ohio State 52%, Michigan 23%, Wisconsin 5%, Penn State 4%, Michigan State 4%, Minnesota 4%, Purdue 2%, Iowa 2%, Nebraska 0.5%

Odds of no less than 6 wins: Ohio State 100%, Michigan 100%, Wisconsin 98%, Michigan State 97%, Minnesota 97%, Penn State 97%, Iowa 93%, Purdue 92%, Nebraska 83%, Maryland 51%, Illinois 21%, Rutgers 15%, Northwestern 7%, Indiana 6%

BEST BETS

Ohio State below 11 (+110). Similar logic as Bama and Georgia. Your odds of profitable aren’t wonderful (48%), however the odds of pushing (35%) are far better than the percentages of dropping (17%).

Nebraska below 7.5 (-125). The whole world has the Huskers listed as bounce-back candidates after they misplaced 9 video games by single-digit margins final season. However that sentiment has probably gone a bit too far now. SP+, which has traditionally favored NU, sees solely a 35% probability of clearing 7.5 wins.

Michigan State over 7.5 (-125). Simply as Nebraska sentiment has overcorrected, I really feel like MSU sentiment has finished so in the wrong way. The Spartans wanted a ton of shut wins to complete 11-2 and will regress within the win column, however SP+ thinks there’s solely a 31% probability they fall below 8-4.

Minnesota over 7.5 (-130). The Gophers went 9-4 final season and are well-positioned to enhance offensively. The schedule is manageable, and SP+ provides them a 68% probability of going 8-4 or higher.

Indiana below 4 (-125). The Hoosiers are going through a brutal schedule as they try a rebound from final yr’s sudden collapse. Odds of -125 imply a 56% break-even level, and their odds of falling below 4 are solely 54%, however as soon as once more, the possibility of pushing (25%) is larger than probability of dropping the guess (21%).


Huge 12

Odds of ending with 0-1 losses: Oklahoma 31%, Oklahoma State 5%, Baylor 2%, Texas 2%, Kansas State 1%

Odds of no less than 6 wins: Oklahoma 100%, Oklahoma State 97%, Baylor 92%, Texas 91%, Kansas State 84%, TCU 77%, Iowa State 69%, Texas Tech 51%, West Virginia 35%, Kansas 1%

BEST BETS

Texas below 7.5 (-120). Is there an opportunity that the Longhorns catch fireplace with a elaborate new quarterback (Quinn Ewers) and an improved protection? Completely. However betting towards Texas hype pays fairly regularly, and SP+ solely provides the Horns a 25% probability of hitting 8-4 or higher.

Oklahoma over 9.5 (+120). There is a ton of change in Norman, however the Sooners have been essentially the most dependable entity within the Huge 12 by means of the years. The +120 odds set a forty five% break-even level and SP+ provides them a 61% probability of going 10-2 or higher.

West Virginia below 5.5 (-110). The Mountaineers’ roster has seen numerous turnover, and a top-25 power of schedule is fairly unforgiving.


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ACC

Odds of ending with 0-1 losses: Clemson 25%, Pitt 12%, NC State 11%, Miami 6%, North Carolina 1%, Wake Forest 0.9%, Louisville 0.5%, Florida State 0.5

Odds of no less than 6 wins: Clemson 100%, Pitt 99%, NC State 99%, Miami 98%, Wake Forest 93%, North Carolina 88%, Virginia Tech 77%, Florida State 76%, Louisville 75%, Virginia 70%, Boston School 50%, Syracuse 40%, Georgia Tech 4%, Duke 3%

BEST BETS

Boston School below 6.5 (-130). I am conflicted by this one, as SP+ would not know that BC quarterback Phil Jurkovec solely performed a part of final season, and the offensive projections are artificially low due to it. However the schedule would not provide many toss-ups, and the Eagles should principally sweep them to hit 7-5 or higher.

Clemson below 10.5 (-150). There is a state of affairs during which all is once more properly with the Tiger offense and Clemson rolls to 11-1 or 12-0. SP+ solely provides that state of affairs a 25% probability of coming to fruition, although. The offense was actually dangerous final season.

Syracuse over 4.5 (-110). SP+ is not predicting large issues from the Orange, however a 66% probability of going 5-7 or higher towards a 52% break-even level is stable.

Pitt over 8.5 (-105). The Panthers in all probability will not be pretty much as good this yr, however the schedule affords solely two top-30 opponents and a 63% probability of going 9-3 or higher towards a 51% break-even level.

Wake Forest over 7 (-105). One other low-risk choice, Wake solely has a 47% probability of profitable greater than seven, however the odds of pushing (28%) are better than the percentages of dropping (25%).


Pac-12

Odds of ending with 0-1 losses: Utah 16%, UCLA 7%, Oregon 6%, USC 1%, Arizona 1%, Washington 0.5%

Odds of no less than 6 wins: Utah 100%, UCLA 98%, Oregon 98%, USC 86%, Arizona State 86%, Washington 83%, Oregon State 63%, Washington State 54%, Cal 48%, Stanford 21%, Colorado 4%, Arizona 3%

BEST BETS

USC below 9.5 (-120). I have been fairly open about the truth that I do not assume SP+ is true concerning the Trojans this yr. Now we have no precedent for the way a lot a crew can enhance after taking over shut to twenty transfers, lots of that are blue-chip gamers. They’ll completely play higher than their No. 46 projection (and their odds of going 10-2 or higher are better than the 6% above), however 9.5 remains to be a excessive bar for a crew that performs Utah and Notre Dame and nonetheless has a great deal of defensive inquiries to reply.

Arizona State over 6 (+110). On paper, this looks as if one of many most secure bets on the board — a 66% probability of going 7-5 or higher, plus a 19% probability of a push, towards 48% break-even odds. This all requires you to place religion in Herm Edwards and what’s apparently a wonky crew tradition. However I am sticking with all of it the identical.

Washington below 7.5 (-105). The Huskies ought to rebound in Kalen DeBoer’s first yr in cost, however this bar’s a bit excessive, and SP+ solely provides them a 35% probability of clearing it.


Independents

Odds of ending with 0-1 losses: Notre Dame 16%, BYU 6%, Military 3%, Liberty 0.9%

Odds of no less than 6 wins: Notre Dame 100%, BYU 98%, Military 95%, Liberty 93%, NMSU 4%, UMass 2%, UConn 0.6%

BEST BETS

Notre Dame over 8.5 (-140, per DraftKings). Even with a excessive break-even level (58%), this seems to be one of many safer bets on the board. SP+ provides Marcus Freeman’s Preventing Irish a 76% probability of profitable 9 or extra.

Liberty over 6.5 (-170, per DraftKings). Like Notre Dame, the Flames have an excellent shot of topping 6.5 (75%), however the break-even level at -170 (63%) clearly makes issues fairly dangerous. It is nonetheless in all probability value taking the plunge.


AAC

Odds of ending with 0-1 losses: Cincinnati 32%, Houston 16%, UCF 9%, SMU 4%, Memphis 1%

Odds of no less than 6 wins: Cincinnati 100%, Houston 99%, UCF 98%, SMU 94%, Memphis 89%, ECU 64%, Tulsa 51%, Tulane 46%, USF 18%, Navy 5%, Temple 4%

BEST BETS

SMU over 7 (-115). Rhett Lashlee’s first Mustangs crew is projected forty third total and performs solely 4 top-50 groups. SP+ provides SMU a 62% probability of going 8-4 or higher, plus a 20% probability of pushing at 7-5.

Navy below 4 (+110). SP+ has underestimated service academies at occasions, and if Ken Niumatalolo will get the QB place below management, the Midshipmen may rebound once more. However SP+ has overestimated them of late and offers them solely a 17% probability of clearing a four-win bar.

Temple over 2.5 (-140). I am usually a “Guess the over on all 2s and a pair of.5s and guess the below on all 11s and 10.5s” individual anyway, and whereas SP+ thinks Temple will likely be terrible this season (124th total), it nonetheless provides the Owls a 72% probability of discovering no less than three wins towards a schedule that options residence video games towards Lafayette and UMass.

UCF below 9.5 (-140). Gus Malzahn’s Knights regarded awfully good late in 2021 and will construct on that. However even with a No. 40 total projection, SP+ provides them a 72% probability of going 9-3 or worse, simply sufficient to fight a 58% break-even level.

Cincinnati over 9.5 (-115). Are the Bearcats CFP-caliber this yr once more? Most likely not. However they solely face one opponent projected larger than fortieth.

Tulane below 6 (-125). One other guess within the “larger odds of pushing (25%) than dropping (21%)” vary.


Mountain West

Odds of ending with 0-1 losses: Fresno State 22%, Boise State 15%, Air Power 12%, San Diego State 3%

Odds of no less than 6 wins: Fresno State 100%, Boise State 99%, Air Power 99%, SDSU 97%, Utah State 86%, SJSU 72%, Colorado State 54%, Wyoming 22%, Nevada 21%, UNLV 17%, Hawaii 13%, New Mexico 2%

BEST BET

Fresno State over 9 (-110). You must belief that Jeff Tedford is correctly energized and able to resume the shape he discovered early in his earlier Fresno tenure (22-6 in 2017-18) and never in his remaining season there (4-8 in 2019). However he inherits an awesome roster from Kalen DeBoer and has a reasonably simple schedule in addition, and SP+ provides the Bulldogs solely a 21% probability of going 8-4 or worse.


Solar Belt

Odds of ending with 0-1 losses: Louisiana 9%, Appalachian State 5%, Marshall 3%, Coastal Carolina 3%

Odds of no less than 6 wins: Louisiana 99%, Appalachian State 98%, Coastal Carolina 95%, Marshall 93%, Georgia State 75%, Troy 63%, Southern Miss 57%, South Alabama 55%, JMU 51%, Outdated Dominion 37%, Arkansas State 26%, Texas State 20%, Georgia Southern 11%, ULM 1%

BEST BETS

Troy below 6.5 (-115). The Trojans ought to have one of many higher defenses within the Solar Belt, however the offense should drastically overachieve projections for Troy to have a shot at seven or extra wins.

Outdated Dominion over 4.5 (+100). The Solar Belt East is loaded, and there are solely a few probably wins on the Monarchs’ schedule. However there are sufficient relative toss-ups that SP+ provides them a 61% probability of going 5-7 or higher.

James Madison below 6.5 (-170, per DraftKings). JMU was one among FCS’ strongest applications for fairly some time, however the Dukes misplaced numerous the celebs from final yr’s FCS semifinal run, and so they’re becoming a member of what may be the hardest division within the Group of 5. That makes 6.5 an awfully formidable quantity, and it makes the below a reasonably stable guess even with a lofty 63% break-even level.


Convention USA

Odds of ending with 0-1 losses: WKU 12%, UTSA 7%, UAB 5%

Odds of no less than 6 wins: WKU 98%, UTSA 98%, UAB 97%, North Texas 75%, UTEP 63%, MTSU 55%, FAU 52%, Charlotte 28%, Louisiana Tech 25%, Rice 4%, FIU 4%

BEST BETS

Western Kentucky over 8 (+110). This one’s tough, since each offensive coordinator Zach Kittley and quarterback Bailey Zappe (plus his high two receivers) are gone after final yr’s offensive renaissance. However Kittley-esque co-coordinator Ben Arbuckle stays on the town, and new QB Austin Reed was dynamite on the D-II degree. SP+ provides the Hilltoppers a 58% probability of going 9-3 or higher and solely a 20% probability of going below. Even when the percentages aren’t that nice due to all of the change, that is fairly a cushion.

Louisiana Tech below 5 (-110). The Bulldogs have received fewer than 5 video games simply as soon as prior to now eight seasons, however new head coach Sonny Cumbie has a ton of holes to fill and a schedule that options solely three probably wins. SP+ solely provides them a 25% probability of hitting 6-6 or higher.


MAC

Odds of ending with 0-1 losses: Toledo 4%, NIU 0.5%

Odds of no less than 6 wins: Toledo 98%, Miami (Ohio) 83%, CMU 82%, NIU 81%, EMU 65%, Buffalo 50%, WMU 46%, Ball State 46%, Ohio 40%, Kent State 35%, BGSU 24%, Akron 2%

BEST BETS

Western Michigan below 6 (-105). The Broncos have to switch many items from a dynamite passing recreation, and the protection in all probability cannot decide up the slack. The schedule options a great deal of relative toss-ups, and the percentages of WMU going 7-5 or higher are solely 23%.

Central Michigan below 7.5 (-120). The Chippewas could possibly be stable, however the schedule options journeys to Oklahoma State and Penn State, which means they will probably should go 8-2 towards everybody else to hit the over. SP+ solely provides {that a} 33% probability of occurring.

Ball State over 4.5 (-140). Issues fell aside for the 2020 MAC champs final fall and would possibly solely get so a lot better in 2022. However the schedule is comfortable, and SP+ provides the Cardinals a 71% probability of scrounging out 5 wins, adequate to beat a 58% break-even level.

Kent State below 5.5 (-115). I do not really feel nice about this one, as I feel Sean Lewis is constructing one thing thrilling with the Golden Flashes. However the schedule options journeys to Washington, Oklahoma and Georgia, and SP+ solely provides them a 35% probability of hitting 6-6 or higher.

Japanese Michigan over 5.5 (-115). Chris Creighton’s Eagles should win some toss-ups, however SP+ provides them a 65% probability of profitable no less than six video games, as they’ve finished for 4 of the previous 5 full seasons (so, not together with 2020).


Better of the bets

If 40 bets is just too many for you, listed here are the ten that I in all probability really feel one of the best about total:

SMU over 7 (-115)
Texas A&M below 8.5 (+140)
USC below 9.5 (-120)
Oklahoma over 9.5 (+120)
Cincinnati over 9.5 (-115)
Notre Dame over 8.5 (-140)
Outdated Dominion over 4.5 (+100)
Missouri over 5 (-150)
Pitt over 8.5 (-105)
Japanese Michigan over 5.5 (-115)

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